Hannan opines that:
The latest YouGov poll
has my party on 32 per cent, and UKIP on 9 per cent. Together, that’s a
Conservative government; separately, it’s a Labour government. It’s
true, of course, that not every UKIP voter is a former Tory. Then again,
the relevant question is not ‘how did they vote before?’ but ‘if UKIP
didn’t exist, how would they vote today?’ It seems not unreasonable to
assume that the majority would support the most convincingly Eurosceptic
party on offer. (which is? ed.)This being Daniel "I voted for David Cameron, and would do so again" Hannan.
So let’s ask the question. Are there any circumstances in which UKIP and
the Conservatives might combine? UKIP leaders keep saying that they’d
gladly fold themselves into the Conservative Party if it became our
policy to leave the EU, but such an eventuality seems unlikely, at least
in the short term. It’s true that most Conservative voters would withdraw from the EU tomorrow. So would most party members. And so, I suspect, would most Tory MPs in a secret ballot. That, though, is not party policy.
Fair enough. David Cameron made his views perfectly clear when he sought the leadership...
As the Yanks say... Do the math.