Richard North, 18/03/2005  

According to The Times today, the French are likely to vote "non" in their EU referendum.

The paper reports that a poll carried out by the CSA Institute and published today in le Parisien, the daily newspaper, has found for the first time that a majority of the French are against the project.

The figures break down as 51 percent "non" and 49 percent "oui". The poll also found that 53 per cent of voters are likely to abstain on 29 May.

Of course, these results do not take account of the warehouses full of pre-completed polling slips, or the payroll vote in the French overseas departements – the latter swinging the vote in the Maastricht referendum in 1992 when there was a margin of victory of less than two percent.

However, the Eurobarometer poll published in December showed 48 percent in favour of the constitution, 17 percent opposed and 35 percent "don't knows". With just over two months to go before the vote, the current poll represents a major reversal for l'escroc Chirac.

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