Richard North, 08/05/2010  
 

This is the full list of seats where the Conservative failure to gain a victory could be considered attributable to the "UKIP effect".  For this, we take to be seats where either the UKIP vote, or the UKIP/BNP vote combined, exceeded the majority of the Labour or Lib-Dim winner over the Conservatives. The list starts here - 41 seats [UKIP alone affected 23 seats, marked with an asterisk].

However, we have also examined some seats where Labour won the seat in 2005 and where the Conservatives took the seat in 2010, where the UKIP/BNP combined vote was greater than the Labour majority. This adds Thurrock to the list, giving potentially 42 seats affected by the UKIP effect: 

1. Birmingham Edgbaston: Lab 16,894, Con 15,620 – majority 1,274. UKIP 732 and BNP 1,196 (total 1,928).

2. Birmingham Northfield: Lab 16,841, Con 14,059 – majority 2,782. UKIP 1,363 and BNP 2,290 (total 3,653).

3. Blackpool South: Lab 14,448, Con 12,597 - majority 1,851. UKIP 1,352 and BNP 1,482 (total 2834).

4. Bolton West: Lab 18,327, Con 18,235 – majority 92. UKIP 1,901.[*1]

5. Dagenham & Rainham: Lab 17,813, Con 15,183 - majority 2,630. UKIP 1,569 and BNP 4,952 (total 6521).

6. Derby North: Lab 14,896, Con 14,283 – majority 613. UKIP 829 and BNP 2,000 (total 2,829).[*2]

7. Derbyshire North East: Lab 17,948, Con 15,503 – majority 2,445. UKIP 2,636.[*3]

8. Don Valley: Lab 16,472, Con 12,877 - majority 3,595. UKIP 1,904 and BNP 2,112 (total 4,016).

9. Dorset Mid & Poole North: Lib-Dims 21,100, Con 20,831 - majority 269. UKIP 2,109.[*4]

10. Dudley North: Lab 14,923, Con 14,274 – majority 649. UKIP 3,267 and BNP 1,899 (total 5,166).[*5]

11. Eltham: Lab 17,416, Con 15,753 - majority 1,663. UKIP 1,011 and BNP 1,745 (total 2,756).

12. Gedling: Lab 19821, Con 17,962 – majority 1,859. UKIP 1,459 and BNP 1,598 (total 3,057).

13. Great Grimsby: Lab 10,777, Con 10, 063 – majority 714. UKIP 2,043 and BNP 1,517 (total 3,560).[*6]

14. Halifax: Lab 16,278, Con 14,806 – majority 1,472. BNP 2,760 and UKIP 654 (total 3,414).

15. Hampstead & Kilburn: Lab 17,332, Con 17, 290 – majority 42. UKIP 408 and BNP 328 (total 736).[*7]

16. Hull North: Lab 13,044, Con 12,403 – majority 641. UKIP 1,358 and BNP 1,443 (total 2,801).[*8]

17. Hyndburn: Lab 17,531, Con 14,441 – majority 3,090. UKIP 1,481 and BNP 2,137 (3,618).

18. Middlesborough South & Cleveland East: Lab 18,138, Con 16,461 – majority 1,677. UKIP 1,881 and BNP 1,576 (total 3,457).[*9]

19. Morley and Outwood: Lab 18,365, Con 17,264 – majority 1,101. UKIP 1,506 and BNP 3,535 (total 5,041).[*10]

20. Newcastle-under-Lyme: Lab 16,393, Con 14,841 – majority 1,551. UKIP 3,491.[*11]

21. Norwich South: Lib-Dim (gain) 13,960, Con 13,650 – majority 310. UKIP 1,145 and BNP 697 (total 1,842).[*12]

22. Nottingham South: Lab 15,209, Con 13,437 - majority 1,772. BNP 1,140 and UKIP 967 (total 2,107).

23. Penistone & Stocksbridge: Lab: 17,565, Con 14,516 – majority 3,049. UKIP 1,936 and BNP 2,207 (total 4,143).

24. Plymouth Moor View: Lab 15,433, Con 13,845 - majority 1,588. UKIP 3,188 and BNP 1,438 (total 4,626).[*13]

25. Rother Valley: Lab 19,147, Con 13,281 - majority 5,866. UKIP 2,613 and BNP 3,606 (total 6,219).

26. St Austell & Newquay: Lib-Dim 20,189, Con 18,877 - majority 1,312. UKIP 1,757 and BNP 1,022 (total 2,779).[*14]

27. St Ives: Lib-Dims 19,619, Con 17,900 - majority 1,719. UKIP 2,560.[*15]

28. Scunthorpe: Lab 14,640, Con 12,091 – majority 2,549. UKIP 1,686 and BNP 1,447 (total 3,183).

29. Solihull: Lib-Dim 23,635, Con 23,460 – majority 175. UKIP 1,200 and BNP 1624 (total 2,824).[*16]

30. Somerton & Frome: Lib-Dims 28,793, Con 26,976 - majority 1,817. UKIP 1,932 and Leave-the-EU Alliance 236 (total 2,168).[*17]

31. Southampton Itchen: Lab 16,326, Con 16,134 - majority 192. UKIP 1,928.[*18]

32. Stalybridge & Hyde: Lab 16,189, Com 13,445 - majority 2,744. UKIP 1,342 and BNP 2,259 (total 3,601).

33. Stoke-on-Trent South: Lab 14,446, Con 11,316 - majority 4,130. UKIP 1,363 and BNP 3,762 (total 5,125).

34. Sutton & Cheam: Lib-Dims 22,156, Con 20,548 – majority 1,608. BNP 1,014 and UKIP 950 (total 1,964).

35. Telford: Lab 15,977, Con 14,996 – majority 981. UKIP 2,428 and BNP 1,513 (total 3,941).[*19]

36. Thurrock: Con 16,869, Lab 16,777 - majority 92. UKIP 3,390 and BNP 3,618 (total 7,008). 

37. Wakefield: Lab 17,454, Con 15,841 - majority 1,613. BNP 2,581.

38. Walsall North: Lab 13,385, Con 12,395 – majority 990. BNP 2,930 and UKIP 1,737 (4,667).[*20]

39. Walsall South: Lab 16,211, Con 14,456 – majority 1,755. UKIP 3,449.[*21]

40. Wells: Lib-Dims 24,560, Con 23,760 - majority 800. UKIP 1,711 and BNP 1,004 (total 2,815).[*22]

41. Wirral South: Lab 16,276, Con 15,745 – majority 531. UKIP 1,274.[*23]

42. Wolverhampton North East: Lab 14,448, Con 11,964 – majority 2,484. UKIP 1,138 and BNP 2,296 (total 3,434).

Analysis will follow on a separate post. There is a list, incidentally, circulating by e-mail, claiming 25 UKIP scalps. However, that list is flawed, containing Lab/Lib-Dim contests, where the Tories came third. Those results would not have been affected by the UKIP vote.






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