Politics: swings and roundabouts

Saturday 8 May 2021  

One of the metrics used to chart election changes is the "swing", between one party and another, first used in the form of a "swingometer" by the BBC in Bristol during the 1955 general election and then generally in every election since, including the current rounds.

This measure works best in a two party contest, and relies on the assumption that the collective vote share of those two parties is roughly constant between successive elections. Then, the proportion of the votes from one party moving to another – representing the "swing" – to produce a winner, gives a rough indication of the shifts in voting sentiment which have brought about the change.

This "yo-yo" portrayal, though, is an extremely crude measure and barely works, if at all, in a three-corner contest (and especially where there is tactical voting), where there are significant variations in turnout, or where there are asymmetric changes in voter behaviour – such as the decision of the supporters of one party to boycott their candidate, and refrain from voting.

In a complex electoral scenario, one might experience elements of all three phenomena, in which case the "swing" calculation becomes valueless, either for predicting the outcome of an election, or for explaining results, especially in respect on one particular seat (or groups of seats).

Nevertheless, when the result of the Hartlepool by-election was announced yesterday, most of the pundits – including the BBC – trotted out the usual mantra, noting that Labour had suffered a 16 percent "swing" to the Tories which had brought about the Conservative victory.

Yet, all the application of this simplistic metric does is obscure rather than enlighten, almost completely misrepresenting the situation as it has developed in Hartlepool over the years.

To get an inkling of what has been going on, one must go back to the very start, to the 1974 general election when Hartlepool was a new seat. Then, the contest was strictly a two-horse race, where Labour's Edward Leadbitter polled 26,988 votes, against Conservative challenger Nicholas Freeman, who took 22,700 votes, with the turnout standing at 79.8 percent.

If we now fast-forward to the 2017 general election, the first in the post-referendum period – where Mrs May made the dubious tactical decision to go to the country – we see a new Labour candidate, Mike Hill, taking 21,969 votes to win the seat against the Conservative challenger, who gets 14,319 votes, beating the Ukip candidate (who polls 4,801 votes) into second place. By comparison with 1974, the turnout was substantially down, at 59.2 percent.

The 2019 general, however, is a bit of an oddity, where there is some concern about the progress of Brexit and the newly-formed Brexit Party fronts Richard Tice as its candidate in Hartlepool.

Tice makes a strong showing, with 10,603 votes, but the Conservative Stefan Houghton stays ahead of him with 11,869 votes. But the winner is Labour's Mike Hill, whose vote drops to 15,464 on a turnout which has dropped to 57.9 percent.

That brings us to the current by-election, where one very obvious change is the poor showing of Reform UK, the successor to the Brexit Party. From 10,603 votes, we see a spectacular collapse to a mere 368 votes.

Received wisdom is that the Ukip and then Brexit Party votes in the past have come mainly from the Tories. However, Farage has long argued that, in the northern seats, he was taking votes from Labour, especially in the stronger "leave" seats such as Hartlepool.

With the collapse of the Reform UK vote, therefore, one might have expected some of the votes to have "returned" to Labour. But, in 2021, this is not the case. Mike Hill, the previous incumbent, has resigned over allegations of "sexual harassment and victimisation", and is due to face an employment tribunal.

Hill's successor, Canterbury-born Paul Williams is parachuted in from nearby Stockton where he worked as a GP partner. And, although he campaigns vigorously, his reward is to suffer the lowest Labour vote in the history of the constituency, at a mere 8,589. If the Reform UK votes have been recast, then they certainly did not go "back" to Labour.

Now here's the interesting thing. If these votes didn't go to Labour, only a fraction of them can have gone to the Tory challenger, Jill Mortimer, who only polled a mere 15,529 votes to win the seat, up only just over a thousand votes on Stefan Houghton's showing in 2017 – representing only 68 percent of the vote polled by the Tories in 1974.

Thus, the real culprit here is the turnout. From 1974, when 49,688 voters passed through the polling stations, representing 76.9 percent of the electorate, this had dropped to 41,835 voters in 2017, giving a turnout of 59.2 percent (and not very much different in 2019, when the turnout was 57.9 percent). But, in the by-election just past, turnout plummeted to 29,933, calling in at 42.7 percent. Between 2017 and 2021, nearly 12 thousand voters stayed at home.

Given that the Tory vote largely held up, even if it was significantly down on historic levels, it is reasonable to postulate that most of the stay-at-home voters were former Labour supporters.

Looking at the results from this perspective, it is fair to say that the Tories have barely moved from their 2017 voting figure, and polled only 68 percent of their 1974 vote. Thus, one can conclude that the seat went to the Tories because the Labour vote had collapsed to an historic low, with the Labour candidate unable to attract Brexit Party (formerly Ukip voters) back into the fold.

In essence, the Tory showing is actually quite mediocre, on which basis, rather than suggest that there had been a swing to the Tories, it would be more appropriate to point to that collapse of the Labour vote: the Tories didn't win the seat in any real sense. Labour lost it.

This cannot be said to be any great endorsement for the Tories and, in many respects it paints a picture of party politics in decline. In round figures, just four out of ten bothered to cast a vote and, of those, only two voted for Johnson's party – a mere 22 percent of the electorate.

Yet, for all that, this result is being painted as a great victory for the Conservatives. In her analysis, the incomparably stupid Laura Kuenssberg gushes that the "rickety folding tables" [in the counting centre] "looked like they could hardly cope with the weight of votes for the Tory candidate, and now elected MP, Jill Mortimer, in Hartlepool". With only just over 15K votes to record, one wonders how the clerks would have coped in 1974.

But, in Kuenssberg's foetid, London-centric world, she sees the lacklustre Troy performance as "more evidence for the Conservatives that they are digging further and further into territory where once they were total outsiders". In her terms, "They didn't just win here, they romped home".

Despite the over-cooking, though, nothing can disguise the fact that this is a bad result for Labour. Already, the wibbling from the Left is in full flow, with talk of Hartlepool voting "by a landslide for a Conservative".

Thus, the indications are that Labour has no more idea why they lost the seat than the Tories have for winning it, and are completely unaware of the electoral dynamics which shaped the result.

More to the point, Labour is far from coming to terms with some basic truths, which means that there will be plenty more "Hartlepools" on the horizon.

With Labour in such disarray, Johnson doesn't have to win any seats as long as Starmer is so obligingly losing them. On the other hand, if Starmer reads the runes correctly (a very big if), his task is not as daunting as would appear. All he has to do is stop losing.

Also published on Turbulent Times.

Richard North 08/05/2021 link

Politics: this broken system

Friday 7 May 2021  

In a particularly cynical piece of electoral manipulation, voters in West Yorkshire were confronted yesterday with a lengthy ballot slip for a politician who will be styled as the "mayor" of West Yorkshire.

This, by any other name is the reintroduction of John Prescott's failed regional government programme, which hit the rocks in 2004 when the voters of the putative North-East region heavily defeated a proposal to create a regional assembly by 78 to 22 percent.

In anticipation of a victory, further referendums for the North West England and Yorkshire and the Humber had been planned but, after such a heavy defeat in what was expected to be the strongest area, those referendums were never held.

Then, on 3 May 2012 Conservative-Lib-Dem coalition government held separate referendums in the Bradford, Leeds and Wakefield districts of West Yorkshire asking whether they should be led by directly elected mayors.

This was part of a broader initiative which covered the 12 largest English cities and, in response, the electorates of the three West Yorkshire districts voted, respectively, 55.1, 63.3 and 62.2 percent against the proposition.

One might have thought, as a result, that the whole idea of messing with local government in the region might have been abandoned, but Cameron's coalition was not minded to take a mere "no" from the electorates for an answer.

In the same year, a West Yorkshire Combined Authority (WYCA) was proposed and then negotiated between the coalition government, Leeds City Region Enterprise Partnership and the five West Yorkshire local government districts of Bradford, Calderdale, Kirklees, Leeds and Wakefield.

Effectively, this would involve creating a brand new authority, taking over from West Yorkshire County Council which had been set up in 1974 after the passage of the Local Government Act 1972, and abolished in 1986 in favour of the unitary authority system.

Side-stepping the inconvenience of a referendum, which – on past form – might have blocked the five councils' ambitions, public participation was restricted to a carefully-managed "consultation" process. This allowed the five districts to collude with the government in setting up their combined authority, which was established on 1 April 2014 after statutory approval on 31 March.

At the heart of the new enterprise was a £1.8 billion "bribe", supposedly transferred from central control to the new authority, to cover investment on such matters as transport, skills, housing and regeneration.

But, spread over 30 years and between five metropolitan districts with a combined population of 2.3 million, that amounted to about £26 per head of population per year, or a mere £12 million a year for each district.

The overall annual sum is less than the what is need to deal with the epidemic of potholes in the region, and – doubtless to compensate for the headline largess - West Yorkshire's road maintenance funding – perilously inadequate at best - has been slashed by 22 percent for 2021/22, a reduction of £10.2 million, from £46.7 to £36.5 million.

The district councillors have been cheaply bought, by an annual sum less than twice the size of the annual road maintenance budget – which is in any event subject to the willingness of future chancellors over the next three decades to honour the funding agreement.

Thus, yesterday, voters in West Yorkshire were confronted by the still unfamiliar supplementary voting system for a politician that they hadn't asked for, leading an authority which they also hadn't asked for, in circumstances where, had they had been formally consulted by way of a referendum, they would probably have said "no".

Ironically, although this travesty of a system has been set up by the democracy-loving Tories, it is Starmer's Labour party which is set to be the immediate beneficiary – and a potential loser.

The Labour candidate is Tracy Brabin, currently MP for Batley and Spen – first elected in 2016 after the murder of Jo Cox. Selected in December as Labour's candidate for West Yorkshire "mayor", she is standing for a position which also takes on the duties of the police and crime commissioner.

But, according to the Electoral Commission, no standing MP is allowed to fulfil PCC duties, which will require Brabin to step down as MP – which she has pledged to do if she wins the election.

The downside for Labour is that Brabin's seat of Batley and Spen was a Tory target in the 2019 general, which they had hopes of winning. And while Brabin had re-taken the seat in the 2017 general with a stonking vote of 29,844 against the Conservative's 20,833, she did not repeat that performance in 2019, her vote dropping to 22,594.

However, it should be noted that the Conservative vote also dropped, to 19,069 – the two lead parties affected by the intervention of a newly formed independent party, with the unlikely name of the Heavy Woollen District Independents.

Led by Aleksandar Lukic, who was the chairman for UKIP's Dewsbury, Batley and Spen branch until 2017, it fronted Paul Halloran who managed the feat of eroding to votes of both parties and possibly saving Brabin from electoral annihilation – aided, perhaps, by the Brexit Party which polled 1,678 votes.

This puts the constituency – and any potential by-election – in the same complex league as Hartlepool, which had its 2019 vote heavily influenced by the Brexit Party, again possibly rescuing the seat for the Labour candidate.

The story is picked up by the Financial Times, which has Barry Sheerman, MP for nearby Huddersfield, saying: "A lot of people took a long time to wake up to the fact that the West Yorkshire mayor will have police powers, meaning Tracy will have to resign quite promptly".

However, he dismisses fears of losing a by-election, saying: "We are aware of that and it will be a challenging by-election, as by-elections always are", then adding: "I think the party is aware of that, but I think as long as we get the right candidate it is winnable".

The FT has one well-placed Labour party figure saying that the party was lining up Lisa Johnson, director of external relations at the GMB trade union, and Fazila Aswat, the office manager who was with Cox when she was murdered, as likely candidates for the seat.

On the other hand, Conservative campaigners think that if Halloran's votes can be taken by the Tories, along with some from the Brexit party, they might have a chance of winning.

What could make the difference, though, is that the constituency also has a higher than national average ethnic minority population (mostly Muslims of Pakistani descent), who historically favour Labour. Thus, while senior Labour figures are aware of the potential for a loss in Batley and Spen, they hope it will be more defendable than Hartlepool.

One senior Conservative MP also cautioned that Batley and Spen is "a different world" from Hartlepool and would by no means be an easy win for the party. But then, this is assuming that Brabin wins the contest for the West Yorkshire "mayor".

This, we will not know until Sunday, when it is fair to say that the result will be eagerly anticipated only by the career politicians and their hangers-on, in a sterile contest that has absolutely nothing to do with public aspirations.

There will be a frisson of excitement when the Hartlepool result is known but, and the Scottish and London Mayor results may attract some interest but, by and large, politics will then continue without any serious engagement with the people.

Locally, much will depend on how well the parties game the system, with one analyst remarking that there was a tiny Brexit party vote in Batley and Spen so the result would depend on the Labour to Conservative defections. "Labour's best policy is to play for time given the vaccine 'sugar high' for the government in polls probably falls off come the autumn", he says.

Whatever else happens, in this broken system, democracy doesn't get much of a look in.

Also published on Turbulent Times.

Richard North 07/05/2021 link

Brexit: adults in the room

Thursday 6 May 2021  

Virtually all the legacy newspapers have carried the publication of Michel Barnier's book on the Brexit negotiations, covering the period between the 2016 referendum and the end of January this year. It is out today in French and available in English in October.

Entitled La Grande Illusion (Journal secret du Brexit), it gets different treatment according to which paper is reviewing it. But, for those inclined, there is a 57-page extract on the publisher's website in the original French.

As to the papers, we start with The Times, which headlines, "Boris Johnson didn't know his own Brexit policy, claims Michel Barnier", adding the subtitle: "A new book by the EU negotiator reflects on the PM's 'baroque personality' and trouble with details".

The diaries, we are told, focus on how Conservative infighting shaped Brexit, especially with the emergence of Johnson as party leader and prime minister. As charmed as he is repulsed by Johnson's "baroque personality", Barnier does not hide his astonishment and, sometimes, anger at British negotiating tactics, particularly after Theresa May left No 10.

Thus, The Times's report leapfrogs almost to the end of the negotiations, focusing on the Brussels dinner on 9 December last year, as talks hung in the balance. Johnson is said to have stunned Barnier and Ursula von der Leyen, by appearing not to know his own negotiating position.

Amid deep disagreements on fishing and EU demands for a "level playing field" in regulation, the prime minister allegedly suggested a minimal deal on areas of existing agreement combined with a new pact on defence and security to take the sting out of a no-deal Brexit.

"We could even, in the event of disagreement, show a willingness to co-operate with a treaty on foreign policy and defence", he told the Brussels pair, to "general astonishment on our side", writes Barnier, because he had "brutally" rejected such a deal in the past.

Barnier said that he replied: "But Boris, it was you who refused to open a chapter on defence, co-operation and foreign policy in the negotiations". Johnson had replied: "What do you mean, me? Who gave this instruction?", while looking at his officials.

The Telegraph, predictably, takes a different slant, bringing in more players in its headline, which reads: "'Bulldozer' Boris and 'messianic' Raab: Michel Barnier's withering verdict on Britain’s Brexit team". The sub-head tells of Barnier hitting out at "childish" UK ploys.

That is expanded upon in the text, where Johnson's negotiators are "blasted" as "childish" and "not up to the task", with Barnier regarding his European team the only "adults in the room". He paints a picture of petulant British negotiators under Johnson, who he said had not fully grasped the implications of Brexit and was full of bluster and bluff.

At one point in the talks, when he says the British had wrongly claimed that the EU had ruled out a Canada-style trade relationship, Barnier writes: "We looked at each other with incredulity. It was almost childish".

This paper also has Barnier voicing disdain for his British opposite numbers, dismissing Dominic Raab as a man with a "Messianic light in his eye" who "lacks nuance". David Davis kept a low profile and "avoided blows".

Jacob Rees-Mogg is described as "one of the most ideological Eurosceptic Conservative MPs and decidedly the most opportunistic, who cultivates a style that is more 19th century than close to the people". Olly Robbins, on the other hand, wins plaudits as "taking the measure better than others of the consequences of Brexit and seeking to limit the damage".

Jeremy Corbyn gets short shrift as an "old school Leftist" who failed to grasp the technicalities of the negotiations and bore a "heavy responsibility" for sitting on fence. But Mr Corbyn's successor, Sir Keir Starmer, receives the Barnier stamp of approval "as I get the feeling I am dealing with a future prime minister of the UK".

As for Johnson, Mr Barnier lets rip as he writes about his resignation as Foreign Secretary. "In truth, Boris Johnson committed so many errors and verbal 'outbursts' that his nomination as head of the Foreign Office seemed incongruous in numerous capitals. And I can imagine that this was also the sentiment of many British diplomats".

The Independent, in one of the longer pieces, has as its headline, "Barnier hits back at ‘childish’ and ‘pathetic’ Brexit strategies of Boris Johnson", with the sub-head: "Memoirs of negotiation show how Brussels lost trust in Downing Street team".

Again we get the jibe of the EU negotiators having to act as the "adults in the room", the context being "repeated provocations" from Johnson which at times became "pathetic" and "almost childish". Barnier then accuses Johnson and his inner circle of "political piracy" and states baldly as negotiations reach their endgame: "I simply no longer trust them".

At one point, after Mr Johnson threatened to tear up the laboriously negotiated agreement on the Irish border, Mr Barnier wrote that it appeared the UK was pursuing the “madman strategy” of pretending to be ready for a no-deal Brexit in order to force Brussels into concessions. The Downing Street team were "not up to the challenge of Brexit", and Johnson himself appeared badly briefed in talks with European Commission presidents.

Right up to the last minute, a day before signing the TCA on Christmas Eve, the Johnson team were seeking advantage, presenting the EU with a legal text which was "peppered with traps, false compromises and backwards steps".

The Independent also picks up Barnier's reference to May's Lancaster House speech on 17 January 2017, from which Barnier expressed himself "stupefied" as she ruled out most forms of future cooperation with the remaining 27-nation bloc.

In the Guardian, this is given more thorough treatment, where Barnier "marvels at, "The number of doors she shut, one after the other", recording that he was "astonished at the way she has revealed her cards … before we have even started negotiating".

He pondered whether the consequences of the decisions had been "thought through, measured or discussed. "Does she realise this rules out almost all forms of cooperation we have with our partners?", he asked.

Furthermore, May's proposed timetable – undoing a 44-year partnership via article 50 and agreeing a future relationship, all within two years – also seemed "ambitious to say the least, when it took seven years of intense work to negotiate a simple FTA with Canada".

The Guardian headline tells us: "Tory quarrels determined UK’s post-Brexit future, says Barnier", with the text emphasising that Britain's post-Brexit future was determined by "the quarrels, low blows, multiple betrayals and thwarted ambitions of a certain number of Tory MPs".

The UK's early problem, Barnier is cited as writing, was that they began by "talking to themselves. And they underestimate the legal complexity of this divorce, and many of its consequences".

As to Johnson. Barnier writes that, "Although his posturing and banter leave him open to it", it would be dangerous to underestimate him. In the talks, he was "advancing like a bulldozer, manifestly trying to muscle his way forwards,, although seemingly hobbled by the same fundamental British Brexit problem.

When one of Barnier's 60-member team explained to Johnson the need for customs and quality checks on the Irish border, Barnier writes, it was "my impression that he became aware, in that discussion, of a series of technical and legal issues that had not been so clearly explained to him by his own team".

As late as May 2020, Barnier records his surprise at the UK's continued demands for "a simple Canada-type trade deal" while still retaining single market advantages "in innumerable sectors". There remains "real incomprehension, in Britain, of the objective, sometimes mechanical consequences of its choices", he writes.

The Financial Times then follows up with a headline declaring "Boris Johnson's 'madman' strategy dumbfounded Brussels' Brexit chief", as the sub-head has Barnier describing "how EU lost trust in UK's unpredictable and unprepared prime minister".

There is, of course, much more – even in these reviews – which I've read with some trepidation, with my own (very much shorter) rendition on the negotiations already type-set in the revised copy of The Great Deception.

To my relief, I don't seem to have left anything out of significance, but I will have to wait until October to be sure. But I am heartened by Barnier coming up with a similar view on May's Lancaster House speech and much more.

I'm also amused by Barnier's views of Brexiters in general and of Nigel Farage and his Ukip followers in particular. He writes that they had simply behaved "irresponsibly, with regard to the national interests of their own country". How else, Barnier asks, "could they call on people to make such a serious choice without explaining or detailing to them its consequences?"

Of the arch-Brexiters, Digby Jones, John Mills and John Longworth, he writes: "Their discourse is, quite simply, morally scandalous".

We are fortunate to get Barnier's views on these negotiations and, even if they don't add greatly to the sum of our knowledge, the at least confirm what we knew (or suspected) anyway. Even then, the shades of ignorance displayed by our politicians and our negotiators is an indictment of the way the Brexit process was handled.

When the final accounts are in, I would be fairly confident that history won't be kind to the British effort.

Also published on Turbulent Times.

Richard North 06/05/2021 link

Brexit: an awkward choice

Wednesday 5 May 2021  

Having essentially turned his back on "Europe", it is indisputably the case that Johnson is putting all his money on creating new deals with the rest of the world. And, of those, the "jewel in the crown" is a deal with covid-wracked India, with whose leader, Narendra Modi, Johnson has just held a " virtual summit" – after his direct meeting had been abandoned.

The outcome of this "summit" – according to the Financial Times - is the agreements of a "2030 road map", setting the path to strengthened bilateral ties in key areas such as trade, education and defence.

London has also announced that the two countries have agreed investment deals, said to be worth almost £1 billion, and the two government have signed an agreement to clamp down on illegal migration and enhance opportunities for people to live and work in each other's countries.

Using as many big words as they could cobble together under the circumstances, the two parties are committing to boosting economic ties through a "new and transformational comprehensive strategic partnership", aiming to open up opportunities for business within sectors such as food and drink and life sciences by reducing trade barriers.

In theory, this will be achieved by measure which could include reducing non-tariff barriers on items such as fruit, and allowing medical devices to be exported between the UK and India more easily.

Says Johnson, in words that must have been written by the FCO: "The UK and India share many fundamental values. The UK is one of the oldest democracies, and India is the world's largest. We are both committed members of the Commonwealth. And there is a living bridge uniting the people of our countries".

He added: "This connection will only grow over the next decade as we do more together to tackle the world's biggest problems and make life better for our people. The agreements we have made today mark the beginning of a new era in the UK-India relationship".

Modi personal statement, however, seems to have been a briefer, less fulsome response. It merely described the meeting as "productive" and welcomed the "ambitious" road map.

Sandeep Chakravorty, the joint secretary for Europe west for India's ministry of external affairs, described the summit as "a new milestone" in bilateral relations, but added a somewhat downbeat coda, adds: "Both our leaders had substantive discussions … and exchanged views on regional and global issues of mutual interest".

Chakravorty, though, is not the only one to sound downbeat. Independent commentator Sean O'Grady questions Liz Truss's £1 billion investment, and claims of creating 6,000 jobs, asking how much would have have materialised if Truss and her department didn't exist, and whether it would have been different had the UK not left the EU.

O'Grady, though, also suggests that the Indian adventure begs some other post-Brexit questions. In the past, he says, British trade missions to India have faltered because the British – and in particular Theresa May – proved hostile to Indian requests to make it easier for young Indians to come to Britain to study and work.

Now that the UK has its own points-based immigration policy, that can change, he says. But a rapid increase in the number of visas for Indian students and professionals hasn't been a major feature of the new regime so far; if it had, the right wing of the Conservative Party might have made its displeasure known.

Nevertheless, he sees "encouraging noises from Westminster" about a mutually advantageous exchange of the brightest and best, but little sense of the scale of such movements. Taken with the likely arrival of the trading and professional classes from Hong Kong, some in Brexiteer circles might wonder if this is the low-migration Brexit they voted for.

He observes that trade with India is intimately linked to a more free movement of people between the UK and that country, just as it was with the EU. Thus, while the British have "taken back control" over their borders from Brussels, they are about to hand it over, in the perception of some, to Delhi.

On the other hand, Modi is as nationalist a leader as any in the world, and whatever sentimental feelings he may have about cricket and tea, he will put India’s interests first. He knows that Truss and Johnson are desperate for a flagship trade deal with a "big" country, and, with the US and China out of the picture, India is the only realistic prospect, at least for now.

Modi's negotiators, therefore, can be expected to drive a harder bargain with little Britain than even Michel Barnier did. The chances of the UK landing a favourable deal are remote.

And yet, it is not a foregone conclusion that Modi will be around to guide any negotiations. As India's coronavirus cases exceed 20 million, he is facing a growing backlash over his handling of the catastrophic second wave.

#ModiMustResign is trending strongly in an Indian social media, while feeds are filled with footage and photos of crowded cemeteries, dying patients being loaded onto stretchers, overrun hospitals and bodies being burned on makeshift pyres out in the open.

Despite his government "cracking down" on criticism, there are reports that Modi's complacency and lack of preparedness is having a significant impact. This is compounded by the mishandling of the vaccine rollout.

The country is one of the world’s largest manufacturers of vaccines, yet distribution centres were running short of supplies from April. Now there aren't nearly enough jabs to go around to the country’s 1.36 billion people. Despite that, India had exported more vaccines - 60 million doses to 76 countries - by late March than it administered to its own citizens.

A local expert says it's too early to determine whether India’s second wave will tarnish Modi's reputation for good. He has time to recover, as he doesn't have to go to the polls until 2024, and he is clever and relentless.

However, while Modi has taken the credit for the country's previous success at handling the first wave means that he must take responsibility for the current failure. It will be hard for him to escape that responsibility.

Modi, however, has a habit of announce drastic policy changes to draw attention away from crises. In previous situations like this, he has responded by perpetrating "acts of mass distraction" - sudden, unexpected, headline-grabbing policy initiatives.

One wonders whether the UK even features enough in the Indian consciousness for any trade negotiations to be the focus of one of those policy changes, but the very fact that Modi might be looking for something to keep minds off his Covid failures suggests that his approach to future talks could be unpredictable.

This might be even more so if the Indian prime minister gets deposed in the 2024 elections, or so severely weakened that he is forced into directions which might not favour the UK.

Unpredictability, therefore, is a key issue for the future, especially as opposition politicians are complaining that the Modi government has made India a "laughing stock" in the eyes of the world, with its thoughtless policies in tackling the coronavirus second wave.

In order for Modi to conclude politically tenable deal with the UK, he will have to pull something special out of the hat. This points to him pushing for more access for his countrymen to work in Britain. And Johnson, the Guardian says, knows that this is what Modi will expect from a deal. A Downing Street briefing paper noted that "mobility" will be India's "big ask" and a "sensitive issue".

That paper concludes that the UK government will have a choice: it can have a big bang trade deal with India or it can have tough immigration controls that make it hard for Indians to work in Britain. On this occasion, as with others, Johnson won't be able to have his cake and eat it.

Also published on Turbulent Times.

Richard North 05/05/2021 link

Brexit: an historic milestone

Tuesday 4 May 2021  

On 1 January 2000, there were world-wide celebrations for the dawn of a new Millennium. Then, on 18 March, the last significant phase of compulsory metrication was completed in the UK, when the Price Marking Order 1999 came into force, implementing Directive 98/6/EC.

The effect of this, amongst other things, was to remove pounds and ounces as lawful units of measurement for the sale of goods sold "loose from bulk". From that moment onwards, for a British market trader to sell a pound of apples or tomatoes – or even bananas - became a criminal offence.

It took only until 4 July 2000, in a Sunderland market, for council officials supported by two policemen to converge on a fruit and vegetable stall owned by Steve Thoburn (pictured), to seize his scales. His offence had been to ignore the new order and continue to sell his wares by the pound, as his customers preferred, rather than in the approved metric measurements.

This was the ?rst time the EU's new law had been put to the test, the culmination of the process of compulsory metrication which had been imposed on Britain without Parliament ever being consulted.

With Thoburn in the national headlines, and through the efforts of his fellow marketeer-turned publicist, Neil Herron, the legend of the "metric martyrs" was born. It attracted massive nationwide and international publicity for the anti-EU cause.

When a case taken by Sunderland Council against Thoburn reached the High Court, its decision in 2002 reaffirmed the supremacy of EU law. Metrication thus became cause celebre in the growing Eurosceptic community, more so when in 2004 Thoburn died prematurely at the age of 39.

His funeral and the subsequent wake at the "Stadium of Light", home of Sunderland Football Club, was attended by many devoted followers. Thus the "metric martyrs" acquired cult status. Their efforts did much to shift political sentiment in the North-East of England against the EU.

Thoburn, however, went to his grave with a conviction against his name, leaving Neil Herron determined to secure a posthumous pardon. And now, nearly 21 years later, Herron's efforts seem, finally, to be coming to fruition.

This is according to the Telegraph which, a couple of days ago ran an "exclusive" story under headline: "Scales of justice tilt in favour of pardon for 'metric martyrs'". The sub-head ran: "Convictions of traders for selling wares in pounds and ounces could be disregarded, meaning shops may again be free to use the measurements".

This, it seems, is being handled at the highest level. Ministers, we are told, are working on plans to pardon the "metric martyrs", all five of the market traders, including Thoburn, who were eventually convicted for selling their wares in pounds and ounces.

We are also told that a change of law is being contemplated, which will mean that retail shops and markets will be allowed to decide for themselves whether to sell goods in imperial measurements alone, instead of being restricted to "supplementary indications".

As well as Steve Thoburn, there were two other market traders, Colin Hunt and Julian Harman, and fishmonger John Dove, who were all convicted in 2001 for selling produce in Imperial measurements. Greengrocer Janet Devers – the fifth "martyr" – was convicted in 2008.

Although the campaign to pardon the "metric martyrs" has been ongoing, the plan is to formally re-launch on 4 July, times for the exact 21-year anniversary of the day that Thoburn's sets of imperial scales were seized.

Letters have been sent to Boris Johnson, the Prime Minister, Dominic Raab, the Foreign secretary, Priti Patel, the Home Secretary, and Robert Buckland, the Justice secretary, asking for them to be pardoned.

Already, though, work is under way. Officials at the Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy department are looking first at how they can repeal the legislation under which the five were convicted. Once that has taken place, the martyrs or their families would have to apply to the Ministry of Justice for a "disregard" of their convictions.

Within Whitehall, there is some sympathy for this process. One of these wonderfully anonymous government sources says: "It is ridiculous that a greengrocer cannot sell pears in imperial measures".

But it is not just anonymous sources who are being helpful. Johnson himself made a pledge on the 2019 general election campaign that he would lift the EU's ban on shops selling in imperial measurements, saying: "We will bring back that ancient liberty. I see no reason why people should be prosecuted".

The last pardon – known as a Royal Prerogative of Mercy – was for computer pioneer and codebreaker Alan Turing, whose 1952 conviction for gross indecency was overturned in 2013.

Thoburn was convicted of two offences under the Weights and Measures Act 1985 for selling bananas using scales that had been "de-stamped" by a Trading Standards officer because they were only able to weigh in imperial measures.

That same year Hunt was convicted of six offences under the Price Marking Order 1999 for failing to display a unit price per kilogram. Dove and Harman were also convicted of two offences under the same order, and of two offences of using a scale that was only capable of weighing in the Imperial system.

Speaking before his death from heart failure in 2004, Thoburn said: “All I wanted to do was give my customers what they wanted. "I’m not a hero, I'm just a hardworking man. If customers wanted me to sell fruit in kilos, I'd sell fruit in kilos. In my world, what the customer wants, the customer gets".

Now, the Telegraph has interviewed Thoburn's daughter Georgia, 24, whose mother Leigh died aged 43 in 2016. She told the paper, "My Dad was just an ordinary market trader who became an extraordinary, reluctant hero".

She added, "My Mam was his rock and supported him all the way despite the initial concerns. I want to pick up the mantle and take forward the call for the pardon to finally clear my Dad's name".

Colin Hunt, 72, is now a restaurateur in east London. He is just as enthusiastic about developments. "I will be pleased if my name is eventually cleared and remember fondly of how much support we received from the great British public and the press at the time", he said.

Julian Harman, 62, is another one who has changed his occupation. He runs a removals and furniture business in Cornwall, and added: "I feel that justice needs to be finally served, especially posthumously for Steve". "It is still galling that we were treated in such a way and criminalised for such 'heinous' crimes as pricing Brussels sprouts by the pound", he said, "when we see real criminals committing real crimes being given nothing more than a slap on the wrist".

Janet Devers, now 77, who had to pay nearly £5,000 in costs and received a criminal record after a prosecution brought by Hackney council, added: "To be singled out and persecuted and have my scales seized still to this day beggars belief". She added: "A total waste of public money and peoples' time, especially when it was going on all over the country and at a time when the Government and the EU had effectively abandoned enforced metrication".

Devers says: "To think that I stood on that stall in all weathers five days a week at the age of 66 and all the council were bothered about was taking me to court for using imperial scales", adding: "I look forward to the day that we can say we have been pardoned and look back with pride on the way the British public rallied behind us".

And so, it looks very much if we are to see a small, but significant Brexit bonus. There was never any good reason to impose compulsory metrication on the nation. The two systems, Imperial and metric, can easily co-exist at their different levels.

Turning the use of Imperial measures into a criminal offence was a false move and was always going to serve the eurosceptic cause. Even the BBC entertained the thought that it had contributed to the 2016 referendum victory.

For myself, I was at the "Stadium of Light" in 2004. I have no doubts about Thoburn's influence, and the work of Neil Herron. Now, the very least Johnson can do is make the metric martyrs' convictions history.

Also published on Turbulent Times.

Richard North 04/05/2021 link

Politics: battle of the broadsheets

Monday 3 May 2021  

Well, the Guardian isn't a broadsheet any more, and hasn't been for a long time, but it's close enough to be in the same general league as the Telegraph. And, although not explicitly stated, the two titles are very much at war with each other over prime minister Johnson.

The Telegraph started it, with its multiple pieces defending its boy, but the provocation has proved too much. The Guardian has retaliated with no less than seven articles taking up diverse aspects of the Johnson soap opera.

For a starter, we have an opinion piece by Stewart Lee, a stand-up comedian, writer and director, who is allowed to tell us that he had barely finished one joke about the PM's rollercoaster week when it was overtaken by events.

I've never watched Mr Lee doing his stand-up act and, in truth, until I read his column in the Observer yesterday, I'd never heard of him. But he serves his function in making up the numbers on the Johnson front.

A more substantial contribution comes from regular columnist Andrew Rawnsley, who writes under the heading: "Why sleaze investigations are becoming more menacing for Boris Johnson".

"Number 10", the sub-head tells us, "is beginning to panic now that independent interrogators are in pursuit of the truth", as Rawnsley points out that the reaction of voters has always been a factor in the impact of sleaze scandals, but to regard opinion polls as the only metric that matters is to throw away any claim to a moral compass.

Transparency about who is supplying cash or other benefits to elected representatives, he writes, is an absolutely fundamental principle. It is why there is a register of members' interests, a register from which Johnson is not exempt, although he has a history of behaving as if the rules don't apply to him, making late registrations of his financial interests on at least nine occasions.

For reasons that should be too obvious to spell out, Rawnsley adds, we need to know who our lawmakers and decision-makers are beholden to and why, especially the prime minister. We also need to know whether he has sought to conceal his indebtedness to private interests from the public. If a man can't be straight about how he paid for his sofa, what else might he lie about?

Another of the Guardian's "big guns" is Nick Cohen and he is also holding forth about Johnson, his title asking: "If public life goes unregulated, just who will hold politicians to account?"

"Boris Johnson", he writes, "has a sense of entitlement where a sense of morality should be". In what might be regarded as a flash of cynicism, he adds: "Put a man like that in charge of a well-governed country and anti-corruption investigations follow. Put him in charge of this country and, instead of detectives with warrants, we have chums looking at chums, morally compromised arbiters and intimidated watchdogs".

That cynicism continues as he remarks that it is now a cliche for political journalists to write that Conservative voters have "baked in" Johnson's sleaziness, as dopeheads bake in hash to a brownie.

But Cohen prefers to leave it to Conservative readers to say whether the insulting conviction they don't care about charlatanry and crookedness is true. And he leaves it to lawyers to say whether the defence "you cannot jail my client, your honour, the public has baked in his guilt" has ever worked in court.

What is especially interesting about his piece, though, are his observations about parliamentary commissioner for standards, Kathryn Stone, who may soon be investigating Johnson's relationship with the munificent Brownlow.

Here, he tells us that Stone can recommend that the Commons suspend Johnson, but the Conservatives can use their majority to frustrate her. Actually, that's not quite correct. Stone, if she feels that Johnson's transgression is proven and serious enough, will refer his case to the standards committee. It is this committee which can recommend suspension, but the execution requires a vote from the whole House.

But Cohen is not wrong is saying that it would be a defining moment if the Conservatives did block a suspension recommendation, It would be, he says, a statement that a party that once stood for traditional morality had baked in privilege and venality until it has reduced itself to ashes.

Next in line for a pop at Johnson is John Harris, but he also takes in Cameron to write about "Britain's overgrown Eton schoolboys", who have "turned the country into their playground", remarking that, "the reckless disdain of Boris Johnson and David Cameron is evidence of the institutional elitism blighting our politics".

I don't agree with him, though, when he asserts that Brexit "is a direct result of the latter-day dominance of politics by the privately educated". Brexit was around as a concept long before either Cameron or Johnson got near it.

Inventing a new word (or a typo), Harris then says: "Moroever (sic), because that dominance symbolises a very English mixture of nostalgia, deference and recklessness, it is part of the reason why the UK is now pulling apart". Indeed, he says, "the fact that Johnson has been so hare-brained about arrangements in Northern Ireland is a vivid case study in the perils of entrusting matters of the utmost fragility to people whose basic unseriousness is not just toxic, but extremely dangerous".

"Part of the English disease", he concludes, "is our readiness to ascribe our national disasters to questions of personal character. But the vanities of posh men and their habit of dragging us into catastrophe have much deeper roots".

Harris takes the view that they centre on an ancient system that trains a narrow caste of people to run our affairs, but also ensures they have almost none of the attributes actually required. If this country is to belatedly move into the 21st century, he says, this is what we will finally have to confront: a great tower of failings that, to use a very topical word, are truly institutional.

On a slightly lighter note, we then have William Keegan, writing that, "Brexit's Mr Pooter may not survive his dispute with Cummings".

In some finely-tuned observations, Keegan notes that Johnson used to live in London's Islington, a place shared by the fictional Mr Pooter, protagonist of the Victorian classic Diary of a Nobody. Pooter's wife was called Carrie, and his close neighbour went by the name of Cummings, of whom on one occasion Pooter writes: "Cummings and I have a little misunderstanding".

Carrie's husband and his friend Cummings manage to get over their misunderstanding but, says Keegan, if there is one thing certain about the fallout between the Brexiters of Downing Street, it is that hell hath no fury like a Cummings scorned. "It is obvious", he writes, "that this episode is going to end in tears; and, as a betting man, I would not put money on Johnson's long-term survival".

Two more pieces complete the line-up, an article by Ed Cumming on No 10's "disrespect" for John Lewis, and then an analysis headed: "Labour hopes Tory sleaze will lift its 'red wall' vote. In Dudley, they’re not so sure".

The party aims to come back strongly in the West Midlands, it reports, but - despite the best efforts of the paper – "Boris Johnson seems relatively unscathed by scandal".

And, while that completes the Sunday line-up, while all the other papers today are covering the Manchester United pitch invasion on their front pages, the Guardian uniquely runs an attack piece on Johnson, with the heading: "Senior Tory says Boris Johnson should resign if he breached ministerial rules".

This is Douglas Ross, leader of the Scottish Conservatives, an intervention that is said to have caught No 10 by surprise, coming after Johnson was accused of successfully obtaining funds for the flat from a second donor, while a third was alleged to have been asked to pay for a nanny for his one-year-old bastard son.

With such articles, the Guardian (unsurprisingly) is making it very clear what it thinks of Johnson – as aggressive in its condemnation as the Telegraph is supportive. This lays the ground for a continuing spat, and it will be interesting to see which paper runs out of steam first.

Also published on Turbulent Times.

Richard North 03/05/2021 link

Elections: broken politics

Sunday 2 May 2021  

Once again, the magnet of the Johnson psychodrama is exerting its influence on the English media, with the papers deeply engaged in the issue as the Sunday Times runs a lengthy article headed: "Can Boris Johnson afford to be prime minister?"

The short answer is: "he can't", despite a £157,372 annual salary, topped up by royalty cheques from his previous writings, and paying less Council tax on his Downing Street flat (£1,655 a year) than I do up in Bradford.

His relative penury, though, is largely due to the man's feckless approach to managing his own finances, on top of meeting the financial burden brought about by his sexual incontinence, plus the price he has to pay for sating the desires of his current paramour, now dubbed "Carrie Antoinette" – who is said to have "champagne tastes and a lemonade budget".

Much of the detail is the realms of the court gossip so beloved by the London-centric media, which need not trouble us here. But it does raise the question of how a man who can't even organise his own personal finances can claim to be competent enough to run the government.

But tucked into the detail is an account of the handling of the infamous "cash for curtains" payments which, if true, will set him on a collision course with Kathryn Stone, the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, and expose him to the risk of being suspended from the House of Commons.

On a parallel front, the Electoral Commission isn't messing about with its inquiry. Reportedly, Tory party staff have been given one week to hand over all information they have about Johnson's flat renovation – and have been warned that they could face criminal charges if they do not comply.

This came to them via an email sent from Alan Mabbutt, a senior official and registered legal officer, who said that materials must be handed over by 7 May. "You are put on notice that this is a criminal investigation", the email said, advising that staff who "knowingly falsify, conceal, destroy or otherwise dispose of information … could be committing a criminal offence of perverting the course of justice".

We are so inured to the machinations of the shambolic wreck at the centre of this affair that it takes a moment or two for the implications of this to sink in. Here is a matter where the prime minister glibly says "nothing to see here", where his own party's staff are being threatened with criminal prosecution if they don't spill the beans.

There can be little doubt, though, that this sort of compulsion is necessary. When the question was put to Conservative Party co-chairman, Amanda Milling, asking if she could guarantee that party money had not been spent on the flat, she adopted the same evasion strategy that we have seen from Johnson.

"Donations are absolutely focused on campaigning on the ground in seats like this in Hartlepool, but also the elections across the country", she said. "And from my point of view, I'm really enjoying getting out on the doorstep and talking to residents". In Milling's view, voters care who fills the potholes, who empties the bins, who keeps the streets safer - not Boris Johnson's flat.

This is the line assiduously taken by the Telegraph, which spent most of Saturday pushing out a series of articles giving aid and comfort to "their boy".

Pride of place was taken by an article written by Camilla Tominey, styled as an "associate editor", telling us that "Cummings isn't a genius" and that he was "a disaster in No 10". This, writes the breathless Camilla, indicates that suggestions that Johnson's paramour was the only person criticising Cummings ignores "his track record of woeful arrogance".

This is a significant turnaround from the article published in February 2020. This had Lord Blencathra, who as David Maclean was a Home Office minister in John Major's government, telling ministers to "shut up about Cummings".

"Not a single one of those whingeing about him would be ministers without him", he added. "We would not be out of the EU without him masterminding the Leave campaign, and we would not have won the General Election without his Get Brexit Done plan. He is a genius, and our majority is largely due to him".

When needs must, however, Cummings is to be thrown to the wolves to protect Johnson, while Janet Daley storms: "Labour has made a mistake: You don't accuse a PM of trivialities when he's trying to save lives". The opposition, Daley opined, "should learn that if they want to derail a government, don’t do it on technical grounds which few ordinary voters care about".

For a while also, the paper was relying on a YouGov poll which found that, despite widespread awareness and interest in the Johnson "scandal" stories, voting intention remained static. Last week, the company had estimated that voting intention for the Conservatives at 44 percent, with Labour on 34 percent. This week, it recorded 44 and 33 percent, respectively.

It's hard to look at the numbers and conclude anything but an apparently confusing and contradictory state of affairs, the company says. The public very much know what's going on, and know that a series of scandals currently surround the prime minister, but it has changed very few minds on the man himself or his party.

Timed at mid-afternoon on 30 April, this poll has since been trumped by a later effort from Opinium, triumphantly announced by the Observer.

Labour, it says, has slashed the Tories' poll lead in half "as more voters conclude that Boris Johnson is corrupt and dishonest ahead of this week's bumper set of local and devolved elections". In detail, the Conservative lead has fallen from 11 points to five, with Labour up four points compared with a week ago, on 37 percent, while the Tories had fallen two points to 42 percent.

Johnson's approval ratings have fallen back into negative territory (to -6 from +1 a week ago) while Starmer's have improved from +1 to +8. Some 42 percent of those surveyed viewed Johnson as "corrupt", up from 37 percent a week ago, while less than third (30 percent) regarded him as "clean". Only 15 percent of voters viewed Starmer as corrupt and 44 percent saw him as "clean".

As to the performance of the parties in this week's local election, YouGov has another poll which purports to shows that the Conservatives are set to benefit from collapse in UKIP support, and are projected to gain 90 extra councillors.

This is interesting, not least because pollsters and politicians have been reluctant to acknowledge the "UKIP effect", a term which I coined in 2005, and charted in the 2010 general election, when I calculated that it had cost Cameron a clear victory.

Now that UKIP is out of the picture, we at last see YouGov acknowledging the effect, as well it might. In the 2019 general election, the seat of Hartlepool – now the focus of a by-election on 6 May – went to incumbent Mike Hill, with 15,464 votes, representing 37 percent of the votes cast.

However, while the Conservatives came second, with 11,869 votes, Richard Tice of the Brexit Party came a close third, with 10,603 votes. Combined, the votes came to over 22,000, easily exceeding those cast for the winner – the embodiment of the "UKIP effect".

If one assumes that, in the absence of a viable replacement candidate for a UKIP-type party (this time, there is the Reform Party to deal with), the "insurgent" votes go to the Conservatives, then they are assured a clear victory in this by-election.

However, in these northern seats, Farage often maintained that he was pulling in Labour votes, in which case the votes could (mostly) return to the incumbent, giving the victory to Labour.

There is some support for this in a Sunday Times poll which predicts that Johnson's grip on the "red wall" appears to be loosening, with Labour narrowly ahead in the 43 red wall seats the Tories won in the December 2019 general election.

Tentatively, one might predict that this Thursday is not going to deliver Hartlepool to the Tories, nor cause any great electoral upsets – most likely on a much-reduced turnout as voters walk away from our broken politics, especially as Starmer (pictured) seems to have caught the hi-viz/hard hat dressing-up habit.

Also published on Turbulent Times.

Richard North 02/05/2021 link

Brexit: chips down on cod

Saturday 1 May 2021  

At the turn of midnight, quietly, almost silently, the UK slid into a new phase in its relationship with the EU as the Trade and Cooperation Agreement came into force, following its delayed ratification by the European Parliament.

If there were any celebrations of this turning point in British history, they were so muted as to be invisible. Instead, what little legacy media space was afforded to Brexit-related subjects in the run-up to this event was largely devoted to the collapse of talks on a fishing quota deal with Norway.

That fishing should be an item is rather appropriate, given its prominence in the final stages of the TCA negotiations. But, as with so much material devoted to the subject of Brexit, much of the reporting has created more heat than light.

The Financial Times, for instance, headlined its report: "UK fishing industry furious over failure to strike Norway deal", with the sub-heading telling us that Defra "faces backlash after collapse of talks to secure access to waters that are a key source of cod".

A similar line was taken by the Telegraph with the headline: "Fishermen accuse Government of Brexit betrayal as Norway deal falls through", while the BBC contented itself with "Anger over government's failure to get Norway fishing deal".

The thrust of the story is that, with the break-down of negotiations, UK registered fishing boats will not have access to Norway's sub-Arctic seas, and the lucrative cod fishery. The quota, however, is largely exploited by a single supertrawler, the Kirkella (pictured), operating out of Hull. It is said to catch about ten percent of the fish sold in UK fish and chip shops.

Controlled by the multinational company UK Fisheries, jointly owned by Dutch and Icelandic companies, the owners were looking an increased quota in the aftermath of Brexit, the access previously having been negotiated by the EU on behalf of member states, including the UK. Now, the Kirkella will be tied up for a year, putting a number of jobs at risk.

But where the FT and the Telegraph go wrong – the one explicitly and the other by implication – is in treating the fishing industry as a monolithic, homogeneous entity, which is very far from the case, and then focusing largely on the fate of the Kirkella.

Apart from the regional differences, for instance, there are the very obvious distinctions between the inshore, mid-water and distant-water sectors. In terms of white fish, there are major differences between the demersal and the pelagic sectors, which very often have wholly different interests.

That much comes over from the Aberdeen-based Press and Journal, which gives a better clue to what is going on with its headline, which declares: "Failed fishing talks open up cross-border rift, with company chief claiming Brexit is for Scottish 'barons'".

In a comprehensive report, far longer than anything on offer from the English media, it has the Scottish pelagic sector saying that Brexit has broken a longstanding link between their catch – mainly mackerel and herring – and the cod-hungry requirements of a multinational fishing company.

Thus, while Peter Bruce, who skippers the Peterhead-registered white-fish trawler Budding Rose, says the failure to reach an agreement was a "disaster" and would cause "major problems", others are more concerned that "pandering" to demands from south of the border would directly deprive the Scottish fleet of a huge quantity of one stock – and force it to pay to lease much-needed quota for another.

Therefore, Scottish Pelagic Fishermen’s Association chief executive Ian Gatt says that the talks highlighted "one clear benefit" of the UK taking part in annual negotiations on its own terms, rather than as a member of the EU. The fact the UK was now an independent coastal state meant that the link between Arctic cod and Scottish fish had been broken.

He explained that, historically, the Barents Sea cod quota had been secured in exchange for a significant share of Scottish fishing quota", a point expanded on by Scottish Fishermen’s Federation (SFF) chief executive Elspeth Macdonald.

She said that "Much has been made of the UK not having access to Arctic cod quota for this year, but this was not something the Scottish fleet derived a benefit from, and indeed was something that under the previous EU-Norway agreement, came at a considerable cost".

Any extra cod granted to the Kirkella would have been achieved by the UK providing reciprocal stocks in return. When the UK was part of the Common Fisheries Policy, the EU exchanged 100,000 tonnes of blue whiting to secure extra Barents Sea cod from Norway. Around 20,000 tonnes of that came from Scottish quota.

Because the Kirkella did not catch all the cod it was entitled to, some of that unused catch allowance was exchanged for saithe quota in the North Sea. That effectively saw the Scottish industry paying twice – firstly with 20,000 tonnes of blue whiting and then to lease back the saithe quota the unfished Arctic cod was swapped for.

A similar view is being taken by Shetland News, which has local fisherman putting "a positive spin" on events, saying that past agreements were brokered by the European Union and were heavily skewed against the local pelagic and demersal fleets.

Because the UK-Norway arrangement is a reciprocal deal, Shetland Fishermen's Association chief officer, Simon Collins, says: "in practical terms, Norway's loss of access to our waters this year will remove a substantial presence off their pelagic fleet during the autumn mackerel fishery in particular".

SFA chairman and whitefish skipper James Anderson adds that the inability of Norwegian vessels to fish for demersal stocks in the UK zone would lift the pressure off a highly active gillnet and longliner fleet to the east of Shetland.

"We are convinced that mutually advantageous annual agreements on access and quota transfers can be struck with Norway in the future", he says. "But Norway has to understand that we are not going to cave in, [European] Commission-style, to the detriment of Scottish businesses. It is far better to make that clear at the outset, and we are glad that this has been done".

Defra is certainly unrepentant. It says that the UK had put forward "very reasonable" offers, asking Norway to pay for access to UK waters to help correct what ministers believed was an "imbalance" in previous EU agreements. In 2019, the UK took just £31 million in fish from Norwegian waters while Norway landed £249 million-worth from UK waters.

And, even with the breakdown of the main talks, in a side deal, the UK has agreed access to 5,500 tonnes of fish in the waters around Svalbard, the Norwegian archipelago, as well as shares for cod in these waters with the EU through the TCA, which comes into force today.

As for our fish and chip shops, there will be no shortage of cod but, that proportion which was previously caught by the multinational Kirkella will be caught by Norwegian boats and exported to the UK.

Also published on Turbulent Times.

Richard North 01/05/2021 link

Politics: the beat goes on

Friday 30 April 2021  

There are now a number of issues stacking up on the Brexit front which demand attention. Not least is yesterday's dire Efra Committee Report, building on its shallow work of 2018, where MPs actually described the EU's "official controls" as Customs checks.

As regards Johnson's "Cash for curtains" though, it's a case of "I've started, so I'll finish". It is difficult to leave the issue while it is still an active controversy without, as yet, any resolution. And the very fact that there is strong pressure from multiple sources to play the whole thing down is a powerful incentive to keep picking at it.

Top of the league of those who would have you believe that this is a storm in a teacup is Johnson himself. In a press briefing yesterday, he insisted that there was "nothing to see here, or to worry about", describing questions about the funding of his Downing Street flat refurbishment as a "farrago of nonsense".

In many respect, this is classic Johnson: when in trouble his basic tactic is to brazen it out with, dare one say, a farrago of lies. It is redolent of his response in 2004 when he denied having an affair with colleague Petronella Wyatt. Dismissing allegations as an "inverted pyramid of piffle", he went on to say: "It is all completely untrue and ludicrous conjecture. I am amazed people can write this drivel".

He then went on, through an intermediary, to assure his then boss, Tory leader Michael Howard, that the allegations were untrue. And, as history records, this did not end well.

Some commentators, at the time, thought that this was the end of Johnson's political career, and it certainly prevented him from running in the 2005 Tory leadership campaign. This ended up in the appointment of David Cameron. How different history might have been had Johnson assumed the leadership at that point.

However, now that he has a more firmly-established reputation as a serial liar, and a rather predictable propensity to bluster when under pressure, Johnson's current protestations about his "Cash for curtains" predicament are likely to have less effect then he might hope.

Coming up fast on the outside track is Dame Margaret Hodge, former chair of the public accounts committee and no fan of Johnson. In a series of tweets she explains that she has submitted a complaint about Johnson's conduct to the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards.

The PM, she writes, has repeatedly failed to be honest, open or transparent about the donations and gifts he receives. And, in this instance, has likely failed to declare donations he benefited from, how much he received or how he paid it back.

The Electoral Commission inquiry, Hodge writes, will investigate the Conservative Party, not the PM. Criticising his complete disregard for the rules, she argues that this "cannot go unchecked". Any cronyism, sleaze or rule-breaking on his part, she says, "must be fully investigated".

This is picked up by The Times, where we are reminded that Johnson has "form" on such matters and had "repeatedly broken" rules that require MPs to declare their financial interests.

His previous transgressions were investigated by the House of Commons Committee on Standards which reported on 6 December 2018 on an aggregate of nine separate failings to register remuneration within the required deadline. Kathryn Stone, then (and currently) Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards, found that Johnson had acted in breach of the House's rules, referring him to the Standards Committee.

But that was not the only reference. In April 2019, the Committee was again in action criticising Johnson for failure to declare on time a 20 percent share of a property in Somerset.

After Johnson had pleaded that he had "misunderstood" the rules, the standards commissioner had tartly remarked that, "he should have checked more carefully what was required of him". She concluded that:
Mr Johnson has co-operated fully with my inquiry, but his failure to check properly that he brought his Register entry up to date during the last inquiry might be regarded as showing a lack of respect for the House's rules and for the standards system. That does not demonstrate the leadership which one would expect of a long-standing and senior Member of the House, nor compliance with the general principles of conduct.
In response, the committee had expressed its concern that the two investigations by the Commissioner in rapid succession demonstrated "a pattern of behaviour by Mr Johnson", adding that: "Mr Johnson is a senior and experienced Member of the House, who could reasonably be expected both to understand the basic rules relating to registration of financial interests, and to set a good example to other Members in obeying the rules".

"While there is no suggestion that he has at any time tried deliberately to conceal the extent of his interests", its report said, "this latest breach reinforces the view which we expressed in our previous Report, that he has displayed 'an over-casual attitude towards obeying the rules of the House', in conjunction with 'a lack of effective organisation within [his] office'".

It went on to say: "We find it particularly regrettable that Mr Johnson gave an assurance to the Commissioner that his registration of financial interests was up to date, and within a very short period it proved not to be". And laying down a marker that the committee may shortly be calling in, the report stated: "Should we conclude in future that Mr Johnson has committed any further breaches of the rules on registration, we will regard this as a matter which may call for more serious sanction".

This, effectively, placed Johnson firmly in the "last chance saloon", where he is already under investigation for failing to declare the correct details of who paid for his luxury New Year's holiday to Mustique, that was later declared as coming from the Tory donor David Ross.

There is more to this, though, with "Senior Conservatives" understood to be concerned that Johnson could be reprimanded over his failure to register the involvement of the Mustique Company, which owns the exclusive island resort.

Hodge is now very much on the case, citing a case where the Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey had been told to declare a political donation of £1,500 to buy a suit last year. "Surely similar standards should have been upheld in this case and a similar declaration should have been made, and made within the timeframe agreed by parliament and monitored by your office", she has written to Kathryn Stone. She also states: "The lack of openness, honesty and transparency falls well short of the code of conduct".

Should the commissioner find against Johnson, and the case is referred back to the standards committee, it can impose a penalty which could include suspension from the House. For a serving prime minister to be thus excluded is unprecedented, and would surely lead to demands for his resignation, as being unable to fulfil the basic functions of his office.

Not only that, if the committee finds that Johnson has breached the declaration rules intentionally it could result in the Electoral Commission expanding its investigation to include the prime minister, possibly leading to criminal charges.

One can understand, therefore, why the prime minister and his allies are keen to play down his part in the "cash for curtains" affair, but this now has a momentum of its own, and will not go away easily. Johnson is in far more trouble than he would have us believe.

The only winner, at the moment, seems to be John Lewis.

Also published on Turbulent Times.

Richard North 30/04/2021 link

Politics: the start of a process

Thursday 29 April 2021  

Although in 1931, the notorious gangster Al Capone was dubbed as "Public Enemy No.1", the federal authorities were unable to convict him for his more obvious criminal activities. Changing tactics, therefore, they charged him with 22 counts of tax evasion. He was eventually convicted on five counts and sentenced to 11 years in a federal prison.

Even if the parallel with Boris Johnson is not obvious, it is there. With this prime minister, there are many reasons why he should be taken down, but doing so has proved elusive. So, if needs must, the equivalent of tax evasion will suffice. If that means "Cash for curtains", so be it. Any reason is good enough.

As it stands, though, opinion is divided on that. There are those, who are pretending the issue doesn't matter, including Johnson – who asserts of Starmer's attempts to divine the truth: "I think people will find it absolutely bizarre that he is focusing on this issue, when what people want to know is what plans a Labour Government might have to improve the lives of people in this country".

On the other hand, there are those who know that this issue is important, albeit at several levels. Starmer, quite evidently, sees in it a political opportunity which he can exploit – which, after all, is what oppositions tend to do. But that does not rule out an appeal to higher principles.

In this case, this means the Nolan principles, which – as Starmer pointed out - are meant to govern the behaviour of those in public office. Spelling them out, one by one, he kindly reminded us that they were: selflessness, integrity, objectivity, accountability, openness, honesty and leadership.

Dwelling lovingly on "honesty", with a pause more pregnant than Johnson's paramour had been, he asked the inevitable rhetorical question, in the context one that to which there was less chance of getting an answer than Roland Rat flying to the moon unaided.

"What do we get from this Prime Minister and this Conservative Government?", Starmer asked. For want of an answer, he provided his own: "Dodgy contracts, jobs for their mates and cash for access".

This called for a second dose of rhetoric, where we were to learn of the author of this corrupt mess: none other than Major Sleaze, by which means Starmer promoted the prime minister to a rank above that which Johnson had awarded him, when he dubbed the leader of the opposition, Captain Hindsight.

And Captain Hindsight wanted Major Sleaze to be a prime minister that the British people could trust. They did not deserve a Government "mired in sleaze, cronyism and scandal".

Then, with Johnson already blindsided by an announcement from the Electoral Commission that they were to carry out an investigation into the "Cash for curtains" affair, Starmer was able to refer to the Cabinet Secretary, who had also been asked to investigate who had paid for the refurbishment of the flat. "Why doesn’t the Prime Minister just tell him?", Starmer asked. "That would be the end of the investigation". It is hard to fault that logic.

It is fair to record that, by the end of PMQs, during which these exchanges took place, Johnson was not a particularly happy bunny, showing raw edges which had Starmer's "jubilant aides" crowing of a "Kevin Keegan" moment.

It is also fair to say that Johnson could have killed Starmer's line of questioning stone dead, had he answered the question he was determined not to answer: "Who made the initial payment to settle the invoice presented by the Cabinet Office for the excess costs?"

But then, if Johnson answered that honestly, he would be in a shit-load of other troubles, having failed to declare a donation (or loan). This puts him in Mandelson territory, opening him up to calls for his resignation.

And cutting to the chase, this is why this issue – on its own merits – does matter. There is no bar to a serving prime minister receiving either donations or loans from benefactors. But there are strict (and hitherto unbreakable) rules on transparency. The recipient must declare them which, on the face of it, Johnson hasn't done. And if he hasn't, by past precedent, this should require him to resign.

At a political level, a prime minister in peril of imminent resignation is significant – and the apparent triviality of the issues, characterised by the "Cash for curtains" label, isn't relevant. The very nature of our (much-tarnished) democracy demands that prime ministers are up-front about who gives them money, and for what purposes. On the face of it, Johnson has breached the rules. He must be called to account.

For all its venality, I think the media have grasped that essential point. Journalists may revel in the biff-bam and the soap opera, but there are core principles at stake.

One person who has most definitely got the point is Rafael Behr. It's a pity he writes for the Guardian because what he has to say is timeless, and utterly damning. Just for his opening, he writes:
Instead of a cabinet, Britain has courtiers. In place of a prime minister, there is a potentate. The traditional structures still exist, but as tributes to an obsolescent way of governing. There are still secretaries of state. But their place in the formal, constitutional hierarchy has little bearing on real power, which swirls in an unstable vortex of advisers and officials vying for proximity to Boris Johnson's throne.

The product of this arrangement is the acrid stew of scandal leaking out of Downing Street – a mixture of financial irregularities, reckless statecraft and vendetta, some of it involving the prime minister's fiancee, just to complete the impression of Byzantine intrigue.

No 10 has always had informal cliques and "kitchen cabinets". Prime ministers have commonly trusted advisers more than ministers. Alastair Campbell was a mythic enforcer of Tony Blair's will when Dominic Cummings was splashing around at the political shallow end, advising (and inevitably betraying) Iain Duncan Smith.
That, in itself, paints a dire picture, but Behr goes on to sketch out three reasons why the current situation is "unprecedented". Going through the failure of Johnson's Brexit; and the surrender of parliamentary power and government taking "quasi-authoritarian control during the pandemic; he then broaches the character of Johnson himself.

The prime minister, Behr writes, "approaches truth the way a toddler handles broccoli. He understands the idea that it contains some goodness, but it will touch his lips only if a higher authority compels it there". He is "driven by a restless sense of his own entitlement to be at the apex of power and a conviction, supported by evidence gathered on his journey to the top, that rules are a trap to catch weaker men and honour is a plastic trophy that losers award themselves in consolation for unfulfilled ambition".

Having such a personality at the heart of government makes a nonsense of unwritten protocol, Behr points out. "Much of British politics proceeds by the observance of invisible rails guarding against the tyrannical caprices that formal constitutions explicitly prohibit". Where there should be boundaries, Johnson has none.

Downing Street, in Behr's view: "is now a machine for generating vindictive enmity. Energies that should be spent on policy are consumed settling scores and lighting new fires to fight old ones".

Worryingly, but accurately, he asserts that this is not a phase, nor is it an accident. It is a new mode of government being improvised because events flattened the old way. The court of King Boris combines the zealotry of a revolution with the conceit of an empire and the probity of gangsters.

It is hard to predict, he concludes, how long such a regime can last, but two things can be forecast with confidence: the fall will be messy, and few who cheer Johnson today will boast of having done so once he is gone.

And that, I would judge, are the only certainties to emerge from this current crisis – for that it is. And, if this crisis does not cause the downfall of Johnson, there will be another one behind, which will have similar potential. And, if that doesn't bring him down, there will be another one. Eventually, King Boris will fall.

We are, I think, seeing the start of a process. And, in the manner of a Greek tragedy, the outcome is inevitable. Its importance cannot be overstated.

Also published on Turbulent Times.

Richard North 29/04/2021 link

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